The Trump campaign’s forecast that abortion ballot measures in key battleground states might ultimately benefit him has proven accurate. The results indicate that many voters supported abortion rights while also backing former President Donald Trump, defying the traditional trend of abortion issues favoring Democrats.
Abortion access was on the ballot in ten states, including critical battlegrounds like Arizona, Florida, and Nevada. Measures passed in seven states, including Arizona and Nevada, and garnered 57% support in Florida, though it fell short of the 60% threshold required to pass.
James Blair, the Trump campaign’s political director, told The Washington Post before the election that he believed the ballot measures could be “favorable to Republicans.” He argued that these measures allow voters to make independent judgments on abortion policy and presidential candidates, meaning they wouldn’t necessarily support Vice President Kamala Harris solely due to her stance on abortion rights.
Democrats had hoped the ballot measures would boost Harris by increasing Democratic voter turnout. However, election results and polling suggest Blair’s prediction was correct.
Although the Associated Press has not yet called the presidential results in Arizona and Nevada, the abortion ballot measures in these states and Florida received significantly more support than Harris. AP exit polling indicates that between 19% and 35% of voters who supported abortion rights measures in each state also voted for Trump.
This suggests that Trump’s campaign trail claims of leaving abortion decisions to the states, rather than imposing a national ban, resonated with voters, despite Democratic warnings that abortion rights could still be at risk during a second Trump term.