Users on the predictive betting platform Polymarket have begun placing wagers on Luigi Mangione, the suspect in the shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, following his arrest on Monday. This marks one of Polymarket’s latest ventures into betting on current events, a trend that gained traction during this year’s presidential election.
Bets related to Mangione surfaced on the site shortly after his arrest in Pennsylvania, where he was charged with murder after a protracted manhunt. By Tuesday morning, over ten bets had accumulated thousands of dollars in volume, though this is modest compared to the multibillion-dollar markets seen during the presidential race.
One of the most active markets, with over $100,000 in trading volume, speculates on whether an unverified YouTube account, resembling Mangione’s other profiles, will release another video by Wednesday. This follows a video titled “The Truth” that circulated on social media late Monday night, with betting odds suggesting less than a 2% chance of another video appearing.
Another market, with approximately $79,000 in volume, questions the authenticity of the YouTube channel, with Polymarket’s odds indicating about a 1% chance that it is genuine.
A separate bet, with over $98,000 in volume, posits a 64% chance that the suspect was “motivated by denied claims” or health insurance claims rejected by an insurance company, although police have not disclosed a motive.
Other bets focus on various aspects of the case: the content of Mangione’s alleged “manifesto,” the timing of its release, whether a 3D-printed gun was used in the murder, if he will be extradited to New York, if he will plead guilty, and whether he acted alone.