A new survey shows Vice President Kamala Harris is ahead of former President Donald Trump by two points in Michigan, as the race remains razor-thin in the three “blue wall” states that could solidify a win for either candidate in November. Harris is ahead two points, 49% to 47%, in Michigan, according to a Washington Post-Schar School poll of likely voters released Monday. Harris had a slim lead on Trump, 49% to 47%, in a Sept. 28-Oct. 8 Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters who said they would “probably” or “definitely” vote for either candidate. Meanwhile, Trump led Harris by three points, 50% to 47%, in a Quinnipiac poll released Oct. 9, and they were at 49% in an Emerson poll released Oct. 10, after Trump trailed Harris there by two points in Emerson’s September survey. Poll trackers show Harris ahead in Michigan, a crucial state given its 15 electoral votes: She’s up 0.5 points in Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, she’s leading by 0.1 point in FiveThirtyEight’s average, while Trump is ahead 1.2 points in Real Clear Politics’ poll tracker. Harris’ clearest path to victory runs through Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, known as the “blue wall” states—if she wins all three, which account for 44 electoral votes, plus all of the other non-swing states won by Biden in 2020, she’ll reach the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the election.