Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are statistically tied in Pennsylvania, according to two new polls this week in the battleground state, where a win for either candidate could pave the way to the White House.

Trump has maintained his one-point lead here in an Emerson College survey released Thursday since the group’s September poll, but Harris leads by three points in a Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday.

Harris leads by 0.8 points in Pennsylvania in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average the two are tied in Real Clear Politics’ polling average, and she’s up 1.2 points in Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin.

Pennsylvania has more electoral votes, 19, than any other battleground, and Pennsylvanians routinely pick winners, voting for 10 of the last 12 White House winners—the candidate who has won Pennsylvania has also won Michigan and Wisconsin (the three states together are known as the “blue wall”) in the past eight elections.

Pennsylvania has a 29% chance of tipping the election, far more than any other battleground state, according to political analyst Nate Silver’s election forecasting model that found Harris has an 87.3% chance of winning the election if she wins Pennsylvania, while Trump has a 92.7% chance of winning.

Trump became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania since the 1980s in the 2016 election, and Biden, who is originally from Scranton, Pennsylvania, reversed the trend in 2020, with the state to putting him over the 270-vote threshold needed to win the Electoral College when the Associated Press called Pennsylvania for Biden four days after the election.

Underscoring Pennsylvania’s weight in the 2024 election, ABC News chose to host the first presidential debate between Trump and Harris there in Philadelphia; Pennsylvania is also significant to Trump personally, as he was shot there while speaking at a rally near Butler on July 14.

Pennsylvania has a large share of white, working class voters, with nearly 75% of the population identifying as non-Hispanic white—a demographic Trump typically performs well with, though Harris has made inroads with white voters compared to Biden’s performance in 2020, trailing Trump by only three points nationally, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, after Trump won the demographic by 12 points in 2020.