Former President Donald Trump now leads Vice President Kamala Harris in four of seven battlegrounds, according to new swing state polling by Emerson College that shows the race is a toss-up in most of the states likely to pick the next president less than a month before Election Day.
Michigan: Trump and Harris are tied here at 49% in an Emerson poll released Thursday that shows Trump has lost two points since the group’s September survey, while Trump leads by three points (50% to 47%) in a Quinnipiac poll out Wednesday—though Harris is still up one point in Michigan in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Wisconsin: Trump leads Harris by two points (48% to 46%) in the Quinnipiac poll, and the two are tied at 49% in the Emerson poll, representing a one-point gain for Harris since last month’s Emerson survey. Harris is still up 0.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.
Pennsylvania: Harris leads Trump 49% to 46% in the Quinnipiac poll, but trails him by one point (49% to 48%) in the Emerson poll—a one-point gain for each candidate since the September Emerson survey found Trump up 48%-47%. Harris leads by 0.7 points in Pennsylvania in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Arizona: Trump leads by two points (49% to 47%) in the Emerson poll, representing a one-point dip in support for Harris since September, while Trump has a 1.4-point edge according to FiveThirtyEight’s average.
Georgia: Trump leads Harris 49% to 48% in the Emerson poll—equal to Trump’s 1-point average FiveThirtyEight lead—after Emerson’s September survey showed him up three points (50% to 47%).
Nevada: Harris is up one point (48% to 47%) in the latest Emerson survey that found Trump has lost a point since September. Harris leads by 0.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
North Carolina: Trump has reversed Harris’ one point lead since Emerson’s September survey in its latest poll that shows him leading her 49% to 48%. Trump is also ahead in North Carolina by one point according to FiveThirtyEight.
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